The Bulgarian coast in 2026: is the real estate market overheated, or is it time to add more “fuel” to prices?

As of January 1, 2026, the following is already known:
  • The market is already overheated, especially the seaside market.
  • In 2024-2025, housing prices in Bulgaria grew at one of the fastest rates in the EU: according to official indices, the growth is about 15% per annum and more, which puts the country in second place in terms of price increases in the EU.
  • On the coast (Nessebar, Sunny Beach, Sozopol, Obzor etc.), the increase is +8-12% per year, with studios by the sea starting at a minimum of ~55 thousand euros, and in resort complexes – up to 300-350 thousand euros for high-class apartments.
The euro factor: legally a big event, economically a small change.
  • The EU has already made its decision: Bulgaria will officially switch to the euro on January 1, 2026, with the exchange rate fixed at 1 EUR = 1.95583 BGN.
  • The lev has been firmly pegged to the euro since 1999, so there will be no currency shock in the real estate market — only the form of price recording will change, not the fundamental exchange rate.
In the short term (around 2026): a surge in transactions and prices due to expectations.
  • Croatia’s experience shows that joining the eurozone and the associated inflow of capital can be accompanied by accelerated growth in housing prices, especially in coastal tourist regions.
  • For Bulgaria, major local agencies and experts are talking about moderate but not catastrophic growth after the introduction of the euro: the market has already risen to high levels and the scope for a “jump” is limited.
Probable scenario for 2026 and beyond:
  • Acceleration of demand until the end of 2025 (we observed this in the summer and early fall) and gradual stabilization in early 2026 (buy up to the euro) – primarily in seaside resorts.
  • Additional interest from buyers in the eurozone: currency risk disappears and price comparisons become easier.
  • A brief period of higher inflation due to price “rounding” during conversion (the ECB estimates a typical one-off effect of +0.2-0.4 percentage points on inflation, similar to Croatia), which psychologically pushes up expectations of price increases.
  • In the medium term (1-3 years after the euro): support for demand, but not endless growth.
  • After joining the eurozone, Bulgaria will have access to the ECB’s single interest rate policy and cheaper euro financing, which will facilitate mortgages and generally support demand for housing, including investment on the coast.
  • Market analysts expect that the very fact of introducing the euro will have a neutral to moderately positive impact on prices: the key drivers will remain household income, the shortage of quality supply, and interest rates on loans, rather than the “magic of the euro.”
  • For the coast, this means continued high structural demand (tourism, rentals, “second homes,” relocation of retirees and remote professionals), but with a likely slowdown in price growth after an “initial” surge.
Risks for the market after 2026.
  • In Bulgaria, the difference between incomes and housing prices is already being discussed; similar overheating in other eurozone countries has led to subsequent corrections (e.g., certain markets after prolonged growth, including Germany and Croatia).
  • Additional tax and regulatory measures are possible, as in Croatia (shifting the tax burden to real estate to combat rising prices and housing shortages), which could cool speculative demand and the short-term rental market on the coast in the long term.
In conclusion:
  • The euro is not a catalyst for falling prices, but rather a mild driver of additional demand and the legalisation of Bulgaria as an emerging market in the eurozone.
  • The most likely scenario on the coast: a short-term surge in transactions and prices around 2025 and gradual stabilisation as early as the first half of 2026.
  • Gradual slowdown in growth and differentiation: top locations (Sunny Beach, large cities on the coast) retain their premium, while peripheral resorts are in a zone of stagnation or slight correction.
  • The exact scale of price growth cannot be predicted or confirmed in advance, but the experience of new eurozone members and current statistics for Bulgaria point to a scenario of moderate rather than explosive price increases with possible local overheating.